林棟樑 | Don Lin
美中是否一戰 : 川普在任, 中共會侵犯台灣嗎?
中共會不會犯台這個題目最近在兩個場合內的專題演講都有碰到. 一個是6/5/2025在NJ Livingston佳壇教會附屬的「好厝邊長青會」, 另一個是7/5/2025的美東夏令會. 陳廷楷博士受「好厝邊長青會」之邀來講「談古論今, 美中是否注定一戰」. 他引用哈佛教授Graham Allison的那一本書Destined For War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? (注定一戰：美國和中國能否逃脫「修昔底德」陷阱？). Allison的研究表明，在16個歷史案例中，崛起大國挑戰統治大國的案例中，有12個最終導致了戰爭（例如雅典對斯巴達、德國對英國, 日本對中國）。然而，當相互包容和清晰溝通成為優先事項時，和平轉型也得以實現（例如美國在20世紀初超越英國）。16個研究的個案中, 第九個就是明治維新後崛起的日本挑戰霸主中國的case, 導致1894年的甲午戰爭.這是中國世界觀的基本態度的結果: 唯我獨尊, 蠻夷皆必須為朝貢國, 最好年年都來朝貢. 甲午戰爭也是兩國藉朝鮮這個附庸國的東學黨事件原因打起來. 中國被日本打敗後的奇恥大辱, 100多年來, 還深深地存在大多數的中國人心目中, 耿耿於懷, 伺機報復. 這種獨尊獨霸, 恢復昔日榮光的心態, 牢不可破. 中國發展核武, 擴建海軍, 囤積導彈, 在UN到處擴充影響力, 全心全意想佔領台灣,「一帶一路的布局」, 都朝著獨尊獨霸的方向發展. 美國做為中國獨尊獨霸全球的最大絆腳石, 注定將會有美中一戰, 只是目前中共不敢發動, 專門放狠話, 因為他們還沒有十足把握能一擊扳倒美國(他們也深深知道日本珍珠港事件沒一擊扳倒美國的結局). 等到有那麼一天, 軍事力量壓制美國時, 大戰就會爆發. 中共是一方面繼續擴大中國的軍事武力, 同時也密切評估注意美國的各種軍事力量在世界各地的布局, 比如烏克蘭及中東地區的運用.
中東地區, 以色列在處理加薩走廊差不多的時候, 忽然在6/13/2025向伊朗發動全面攻擊, 引發「以伊戰爭」. 川普總統在6/19還向記者說要給自己兩個禮拜時間考慮考慮是否加入這個「以伊戰爭」攻擊伊朗. 萬萬沒想到的是川普總統在第二天候就下令給美國空軍及海軍, 配合發動「午夜重槌」計畫, 派七架隱形B2轟炸機從密蘇里出發, 各攜帶二顆各重一萬四千公斤的MOP炸彈,直搗伊朗, 如入無人之境, 炸毀藏在山區深埋地下的核武設施. 川普總統的不可預測性及美國軍事力量的精準犀利, 震驚全世界.
過了兩個禮拜, 美東夏令會在賓州舉行. 主辦單位在7/5邀請Gordon Chang (章家敦)來演講, 題目是「為什麼中國共產黨認為台灣是中共的生存威脅」(Why the CCP sees Taiwan as an existential threat). 筆者Q&A時就向章先生請教他對Allison那本書的看法以及他是否認為美中注定一戰. 章先生一向關注中國的政治、經濟和地緣政治的挑戰，並經常預測中共的不穩定性及崩潰, 所以他認為Allison書中所講的中共崛起到能夠與美國平起平坐打對台是不成立的, 因此也沒有所謂的「修昔底德」陷阱. 他不認為美中會有戰爭.
隔不到幾天, CNN在7/8爆料指出川普總統2024年的一個募款活動上宣稱他有威脅普亭不得入侵烏克蘭，否則美國將「把莫斯科炸個稀巴爛」. 他也曾警告習近平，若中國出兵台灣，美方將空襲北京報復。川普第一任總統在2021年1月到期, 把政權交給拜登. 所以能與普亭及習近平說這種話的時間一定是在他的第一任的任期間才有可能. 川普講話, 難捉摸真假, 這種私下的談話, 有沒有發生, 普亭習近平也沒有confirm. 不過, 從歷史的演變,俄烏戰爭果然在川普第一任任期間沒發生. 卻在把政權交給拜登後13個月發生. 普亭是不是看拜登懦弱可欺,卻怕川普的強勢, 各人有不同的解讀. 但是歷史的演出確實與川普講的話吻合. 至於習近平, 川普第一任總統任內他沒打台灣; 在拜登的任期間也幾次聽到拜登要出兵幫台灣打的強硬談話, 是否也因此沒發動侵台戰爭, 不得而知. 事實是習近平在拜登任內他確實也沒有打台灣. 當然, 其理由可能是甚囂塵上的2027年攻打台灣的時間還未到, 所以還在加強侵台的準備. 但是2027年川普還在當他的第二個總統任期內. 習近平會沖著強勢的, 不可捉摸的川普出兵犯台嗎? 從上面的分析看來是不會的. 中共最有可能的Approach是加強收買台灣內部的親中派系, 讓其取得政權, 同時用各種宣傳手段, 迷惑台灣民眾, 造成親中和中的氣氛, 用合議的方式奪取台灣. 只要台灣還有不少同情藍白的選民的存在, 中共這種”文攻”的策略就有奏效的可能. 川普第二個總統任期內, 雖然中共”武攻”可能性微乎其微, 其”文攻”卻要台灣在各方位加強防範. 如果中共”文攻” 多年不奏效, 而”武功”後來比美國還厲害, 其”武力犯台”以雪前恥的可能性絕對是相當高的. (2025-07-12 New Jersery)
Will the US and China go to war? Will CCP invade Taiwan if Trump is in office?
The topic of whether the CCP will invade Taiwan has been mentioned in two special lectures recently. One was held at the Good House Evergreen Association (好厝邊長青會) affiliated with Jiatan Church(佳壇教會) in Livingston, NJ on 6/5/2025, and the other was held at the Taiwanese American Conference – East Coast on 7/5/2025. Dr. Chen Tingkai (陳廷楷) was invited by the Good House Evergreen Association to speak on “Talking about the past and the present, are the United States and China destined to fight a war?” He quoted Harvard professor Graham Allison’s book “Destined For War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?”. Allison’s research shows that in 16 historical cases where a rising power challenged a ruling power, 12 of them ultimately led to war (such as Athens vs. Sparta, Germany vs. Britain, Japan vs. China). However, when mutual tolerance and clear communication become priorities, peaceful transitions can also be achieved (such as the United States surpassing Britain in the early 20th century). Among the 16 cases studied, the ninth is the case of Japan vs China. Japan, which rose after the Meiji Restoration, challenged the hegemonic China, which led to the Sino-Japanese War of 1894. This is the result of the basic attitude of China’s worldview: I am the only one who is supreme, and all barbarians must be tributary states, preferably making tribute every year. The Sino-Japanese War of 1894 was fought due to the Donghak Peasant Incident of Korea, a vassal state of China. The great humiliation of China after being defeated by Japan has been deeply rooted in the minds of most Chinese for more than 100 years. They are still resentful and waiting for an opportunity to retaliate. This mentality of supremacy and restoration of former glory is unbreakable. China develops nuclear weapons, expands its navy, hoards missiles, expands its influence everywhere in the UN, and wholeheartedly wants to occupy Taiwan, and the “One Belt, One Road” layout are all moving in the direction of supremacy. The United States is the biggest stumbling block to China’s supremacy and hegemony in the world. It is destined to have a war between the United States and China, but the CCP does not dare to start it at present, and can only make harsh remarks toward the US. Because they are not yet completely sure that they can defeat the United States in one blow (they also know very well the outcome when in the Pearl Harbor incident Japan did not defeat the United States in one blow). When the day comes where the Chinese military force suppresses the United States, a war will break out. At the present time, the CCP continues to expand China’s military force, while also closely evaluating and paying attention to the deployment of various US military forces around the world, such as in Ukraine and the Middle East.
In the Middle East, Israel was almost done with the Gaza Strip fighting. It then suddenly launched a full-scale attack on Iran on 6/13/2025, triggering the “Israel-Iran War”. President Trump told reporters on 6/19 that he would give himself two weeks to consider whether to join the “Israel-Iran War” to attack Iran. What no one expected was that President Trump ordered the US Air Force and Navy to launch the “Midnight Hammer” plan the next day, sending seven stealth B2 bombers from Missouri, each carrying two MOP bombs weighing 14,000 kilograms each, to attack Iran directly, as if entering an unmanned area, and blow up the nuclear weapons facilities hidden deep underground in the mountains. President Trump’s unpredictability and the power and the precision of the US military force shocked the world.
Two weeks later, the Taiwanese American Conference – East Coast was held in Pennsylvania. The organizer invited Gordon Chang (章家敦) to give a speech on July 5, titled “Why the CCP sees Taiwan as an existential threat”. During the Q&A session, I asked Mr. Chang about his views on Allison’s book and whether he thought the US and China were destined to go to war. Mr. Chang has always paid attention to China’s political, economic and geopolitical challenges, and often predicts the instability and collapse of the CCP. Because he believes that the CCP is in decline, China can not be at the level to compete with or challenge the US, he considers the premise that China and the US are on an equal footing as described in Allison’s book is not true, and therefore there is no so-called “Thucydides trap” between China and the US. He does not think there will be a war between these two countries.
Just a few days later, CNN broke the news on July 8 that President Trump declared at a 2024 fundraising event that he had threatened Putin not to invade Ukraine, otherwise the United States would “bomb the s—’ out of Moscow.” He also warned Xi Jinping that if China sent troops to Taiwan, the United States would retaliate with an air strike on Beijing. Trump’s first term as president expired in January 2021, and he handed over power to Biden. So the time to say such words to Putin and Xi Jinping must have been during his first term. Trump’s speech is hard to tell whether it is true or false. Whether such private conversations took place or not, Putin and Xi Jinping have not confirmed. However, from the evolution of history, the Russo-Ukrainian War did not happen during Trump’s first term. But it happened 13 months after he handed over power to Biden. Whether Putin saw Biden as cowardly and easy to bully, but was afraid of Trump’s strength, it’s up to everyone to interprete. But the performance of history is indeed consistent with what Trump said. As for Xi Jinping, he did not attack Taiwan during Trump’s first term as president; during Biden’s term, he also heard Biden’s tough talk several times that the US would send troops to help Taiwan in fighting China. Nobody really knows why Xi Jinping did not launch a war to invade Taiwan. Of course, the reason may be that the time to attack Taiwan in 2027, as openly discussed in media, has not yet arrived, so he is still strengthening preparations for the invasion of Taiwan. But in 2027, Trump will still be in his second term as the US President. Will Xi Jinping send troops to invade Taiwan against the strong and unpredictable Trump? From the above analysis, it seems that Xi Jinping will not. The most likely approach that the CCP would do is to strengthen the bribery of the pro-China factions in Taiwan and help them take power. At the same time, the CCP would uses various propaganda methods to confuse the Taiwanese people, create a pro-China atmosphere, and seize Taiwan by consensus. As long as there are still many voters in Taiwan who sympathize with the blue and white parties, the CCP’s non-military strategy may be effective. During Trump’s second term as president, although the possibility of the CCP’s “military attack” is very small, its non-military strategy would require Taiwan to strengthen its defense in all directions. If the CCP’s non-military strategy does not work for many years, and its “military power” later becomes more powerful than that of the United States, the possibility of its “military invasion of Taiwan” to avenge its previous shame is undoubtedly very high. (2025-07-12 New Jersery)