Jung Tsai

Wars are never finished. They are merely abandoned.”

On February 28 this year, the world was stunned when television cameras captured the Oval Office meeting between President Trump and President Zelensky. This marked a turning point: with the U.S. stepping back, the Russia-Ukraine war entered a second phase—without American involvement.

Trump, eager to fulfill his campaign promise of ending the war that began on February 24, 2022, has pushed for a ceasefire. But Russia’s demands for a formal peace treaty are unrealistic—Ukraine simply cannot accept terms that undermine its sovereignty.

History Shows: Peace Treaties Are Not Always Needed

My study of past conflicts reveals a clear pattern: regional wars often end without formal peace treaties. Wars fade when exhaustion, shifting priorities, or mutual necessity outweigh continued fighting. What matters isn’t a signature on paper, but whether both sides can stop the violence and adapt to a new, if imperfect, reality.

Here are key historical examples:

  • Peloponnesian War (431–404 BCE) – Ended through Spartan dominance after years of truces and fatigue, not a lasting treaty.
  • Sicilian Wars (5th–3rd BCE) – Ceased through mutual weariness and shifting alliances.
  • Hundred Years’ War (1337–1453) – England lost most territory in France; no final peace treaty was signed.
  • Ottoman-Habsburg Wars (16th–18th c.) – Stability came from overextension, not diplomacy.
  • Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988) – Ended via a UN-brokered ceasefire; both sides were drained.
  • China-Vietnam War (1979) – A brief but brutal war that ended with China’s withdrawal—no formal resolution.
  • Vietnam War (1955–1975) – U.S. exited, South Vietnam fell—no comprehensive peace agreement.
  • Korean War (1950–present) – Ceasefire reached in 1953; no peace treaty ever signed.
  • Kinmen Island (China-Taiwan, 1950s–1970s) – Shelling stopped unofficially due to mutual fatigue.

Today’s Reality: A Regional Conflict

The Russia-Ukraine war is not World War III. It is a regional conflict over territory and political influence, not ideology or religion. Russia has dwindling manpower, relying heavily on missiles and drones. Meanwhile, Trump—frustrated by Putin’s arrogance—is reportedly preparing to offer air defense support to protect civilian lives.

The War’s Third Phase

With Putin demanding total victory and Ukraine refusing unacceptable terms, the war is slowly entering a third phase—one that may look more like a frozen conflict than a clean resolution. That’s not unprecedented.

Conclusion

Wars don’t always end with peace treaties.

They end when both sides are too exhausted to continue.

The Russia-Ukraine war, like many before it, may conclude not through diplomacy, but through necessity. De facto arrangements, mutual fatigue, and shifting geopolitics often bring more lasting peace than paper agreements. What matters now is stopping the bloodshed—not chasing a perfect deal that may never come.

(Jung Tsai, MD, Leader of Ukraine Medical Mission)